Happy (Saver) Independence Day! – Unlocking Winners


By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The week surrounding Independence
Day is an exciting one in U.S. horse racing. Between July 2 and July 5, more
than three-dozen stakes will be contested at tracks across the country,
including a series of lucrative graded events at Prairie Meadows and Belmont
Park.


So what are we waiting for?
Let’s dig in and handicap a pair of early-season Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) prep
races on the agenda:


Friday


Prairie Meadows, Race 8: Prairie Meadows Cornhusker
Handicap (G3)


At first glance, #5 Knicks Go (1-1) seems like the horse
to beat in this 1 1/8-mile prize for older horses. Conditioned by high-percentage
trainer Brad Cox, Knicks Go was a front-running monster during fall and early
winter. In the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), he carved out blazing fractions of
:21.98, :44.40, and 1:08.25 before kicking on to score by 3 1/2 lengths in the
track-record time of 1:33.85. He was nearly as dominant in the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus
World Cup (G1), setting splits of :22.90, :46.16, and 1:09.91 before edging
away to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:47.89.


But Knicks Go’s form has
slipped in recent starts. He was beaten to fourth place by a wide margin in the
$20 million Saudi Cup, and he was defeated again in the one-mile Metropolitan
Handicap (G1) last month, weakening to finish fourth after carving out a modest
pace.


Knicks Go will face some
challenging circumstances in the Cornhusker. The 1 1/8-mile distance is
probably a hair beyond his best, and the son of Paynter will carry top weight
of 126 pounds, conceding anywhere from six to 13 pounds to his half-dozen rivals.
On his best day, Knicks Go would be a formidable favorite. But even-money seems
like a short price to accept on a horse who needs to bounce back from a couple
of sub-par efforts.


Instead, I’ll oppose Knicks
Go with #4 Last Judgment (4-1), who
has been on a steady ascent since being claimed by Mike Maker last fall.
Although he was beaten to eighth place after tracking Knicks Go’s pace in the
Pegasus World Cup, Last Judgment has taken several steps forward in the
interim. After wiring the 1 1/16-mile Challenger S. (G3) and finishing second
in the 1 1/8-mile Ghostzapper S. (G3), Last Judgment produced a career-best
effort in the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special S. (G3), leading all the way to beat
a bevy of graded stakes winners by 1 3/4 lengths.


Last Judgment’s final time
of 1:54.37 was solid, and the Pimlico Special came back fast on the speed
figure scales. Brisnet, for example, assigned Last Judgment a 105 Speed rating
along with triple-digit E1, E2, and Late Pace ratings. Earning triple-digit
numbers in all three pace categories is relatively uncommon, and a testament to
the strength Last Judgment’s performance.


Throw in the fact Last
Judgment will carry just 120 pounds, six fewer than Knicks Go, and I believe we
have the recipe for an upset victory.


Saturday


Belmont Park, Race 10: Suburban Stakes (G2)


A small but elite field has
assembled for the Suburban, a historic prize contested over 1 1/4 miles on the
Belmont main track. Half a dozen runners will face the starter, with #4 Mystic Guide (1-1) a slim favorite
over #6 Happy Saver (6-5).


Both colts bring strong
credentials to the equation. Mystic Guide is 2-for-2 this year, dominating the 1
1/16-mile Razorback Handicap (G3) before stretching out over 1 1/4 miles to nab
the Dubai World Cup (G1) by 3 3/4 lengths. A beautifully bred son of
Ghostzapper out of five-time Grade 1 winner Music Note, Mystic Guide hasn’t run
since March, but he’s training forwardly for his return and should fire a sharp
shot off the layoff.


But even though Mystic Guide
is the “now” horse, and an early front-runner for Horse of the Year honors, I
have to side with Happy Saver in the Suburban. The undefeated Todd Pletcher
trainee boasts a 5-for-5 record and actually defeated Mystic Guide over this
track and distance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last fall. Despite being
boxed in behind a slow pace for much of the race, Happy Saver rallied through
tight quarters along the rail to edge Mystic Guide by three-quarters of a
length.


Happy Saver recently kicked
off his 2021 campaign with a solid allowance win racing one mile at Belmont.
The distance was shorter than his best, and he likely wasn’t cranked for a peak
performance, so I’m expecting Happy Saver to take a big step forward in the
Suburban. If he runs back to his Jockey Club Gold Cup form, he can maintain his
edge over Mystic Guide and deliver a (very mild) upset on Saturday.


Now it’s your turn! Who do
you like in the weekend graded stakes?

*****

Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page—there’s a new challenge every week!

J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.





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