Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
The climate alarmist cabal is all atwitter about a fabricated “study” that makes propaganda claims that “climate change” is responsible for 37% of global heat deaths since 1991 as published in numerous climate alarmism hyped “news-papers” like the L A Times.
WUWT has a superb article debunking this contrived study claim by Pasi Autio documenting the atrocious modeling schemes that have been used to manufacture these phony heat rate death claims.
In summary the WUWT article reveals in detail the following modeling absurdities with respect to how this phony heat related deaths outcome was concocted.
“Study claims that heat-related deaths have increased by an average of 37.0% on 732 locations in 43 countries covered. 37.0% increase between 1991 and 2018.
The make such claim you would need to establish the following:
- Extreme temperatures have indeed increased on study locations
- Temperature increase during the study period is not due to other factors such as urban heat island effect
- Deaths have really increased during high-heat periods
- The increase of deaths is not due to increase of population
- The increase of deaths is not due to population average age being higher
- No other factors have an effect on deaths such as natural disasters”
“Date, deaths and temperature. The basic assumption seems to be that high temperature directly affects the death rate. Hold on! Where is the population data or age distribution data? Such details seem to be considered as trivial information, which is not needed for state-of-art analysis.”
“Really straightforward: Just assess the temperature – death-rate relationship and then consider how much the temperature has increased by using Climate Models. End-result is the percentage of deaths caused by Climate Change.”
“The methods used in A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera et all 2021 are seriously flawed causing results and conclusion to be invalid.
This rebuttal covered just two countries (Finland and Spain), but already this proves that:
- There is no increased heat-caused mortality due to any reason and if there is no increase in mortality overall it is impossible for Climate Change to have any effect
- All increases are due to flawed methods, which rely on Climate Models instead of real mortality data
- Even then the study fails to mention any other factors affecting the mortality such as population aging and increase
- Adaptation to excess heat is ongoing everywhere automatically when the increasing income allows it”
The reliance by this badly flawed heat related “study” being based upon “Climate Models instead of real mortality data” clearly establishes the claimed outcomes as just conjecture and speculation.
The UN IPCC established 20 years ago in its AR3 Climate Review report that climate models cannot be used to establish future climate states meaning that running some hypothetical climate model from 1991 to 2018 and claiming that such a scheme can accurately distinguish the difference between actual measured temperatures with and without alleged man-made climate change variables is scientifically unsupported as highlighted below.
The AR3 report in Section 188.8.131.52 noted:
“In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by generation of ensembles model solutions.”
Additionally, the UN IPCC AR5 Climate report established that its climate model scenarios used to evaluate asserted man-made influences on climate outcomes are based not on any established probabilities associated with alleged climate change variables but are only characterized as being “plausible” and “illustrative” meaning more conjecture and speculation as noted below from the AR5 Report Technical Summary Chapter.
“The scenarios should be considered plausible and illustrative, and do not have probabilities attached to them.” (12.3.1; Box1.1)
Data addressing average number of global deaths by decade associated with all manner of global natural disasters including extreme temperatures is provided below along with an explanation of the significant decline in these deaths from 1900 to 2015.
“In the chart we show global deaths from natural disasters since 1900, but rather than reporting annual deaths, we show the annual average by decade. The data for this chart can be found in the table presented here.
As we see, over the course of the 20th century there was a significant decline in global deaths from natural disasters. In the early 1900s, the annual average was often in the range of 400,000 to 500,000 deaths. In the second half of the century and into the early 2000s, we have seen a significant decline to less than 100,000 – at least five times lower than these peaks.
This decline is even more impressive when we consider the rate of population growth over this period. When we correct for population – showing this data in terms of death rates (measured per 100,000 people) – then we see a more than 10-fold decline over the past century. This chart can be viewed here, with the data found in table form here.”
Extreme temperature related global deaths are shown below for the period 1991 through 2019.
The extreme peaks of 2003 and 2010 reflect the record heat period in Europe in the summer of 2003 where 66,000 deaths occurred and Russia in the summer of 2010 where 55,000 deaths occurred.
This data is also displayed in a bubble chart where the size of the bubble represents the total death count per year for each type of disaster as shown below.
The extreme temperature total death bubbles are shown for the peak years of 2003 and 2010 as 74,698 and 57,188 respectively.
These natural disaster data total number of death graphs do not reflect the huge growth of global population that has occurred during 1900 to 2019 period as shown below.
The graph below presents natural disaster death rates that account for the significant impact of the huge population growth over this period.
As shown in this graph the extreme temperature global death rate properly reflecting population growth declines from 1.2 deaths per 100,000 population in 2003 to 0.825 deaths per 100,000 in 2010 to 0.007 deaths per 100,000 in 2016 and remains at the level through 2018.
Actual recorded global death rates from extreme temperature have decline significantly since 2003 and do not support the scientifically flawed climate model driven claims that global climate change is contributing to increased global death rates from extreme temperatures. The hyped heat related death “study” is a product of alarmist driven incompetent climate science.